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\F3\C LIMITS TO GROWTH
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\Ī»\J The present and future predicament of man is the topic discussed
in the book, LIMITS TO GROWTH, which is a report for the Club of Rome's
project on the Predicament of Mankind. It is a report developed by a team
of scientists from MIT who, with the help of computers, produced several
conclusions as to the possible future of mankind. The book deals with the
five problems of population, which they feel will limit growth on this
planet. The book basically discusses the present and future extent of
these problems and emphasizes the extreme importance for the immediate
attention to them that is required if mankind is to escape a very grim
collapse of social and economic systems. The book is divided into five
basic parts, and I will briefly summarize them in the following five
paragraphs.
EXPONENTIAL GROWTH, the increase of a constant percentage of the
whole in a constant time period, is the major idea stressed in the opening
chapter. The French riddle, about the pond on which a water lily doubles
every day until 3O days later, when it covers the entire pond's surface
beautifully emphasizes the tremendous importance of the concepts of
exponential growth and doubling time. The statement of the 29th day, "You
have one day to save your pond," serves to really shock a person into
realizing the utter significance of this concept. The chapter also
describes the structure of the world model with which the authors worked,
one with many positive and negative feedback loops in which
cause-and-effect relationships closes on itself which accounts for the
occasional exponential growth of certain quantities. One such cycle is
the population cycle, with the positive loop being the average fertility
(births) and the negative loop being the average mortality (deaths). In
order to stop exponential growth rates, the loops must be balanced.
Given exponential growth, what are the upper limits? These
natural resources, and pollution are discussed, as they will most likely
serve to limit the capital and population growth. The present seriousness
of these problems are described, and hopes for future recovery looks grim.
For instance, the authors predict a tenfold increase of pollution by the
year 2OOO. With problems of uncertainty of the pollution's upper limits
and the phenomenon of natural delays, the authors view this as being a
potentially very serious problem, with little hope for man being able to
restore the environment into livable conditions. In short, the chapter
stresses the fact that the earth is finite and that "numerical assumptions
about the limits of the earth are inimportant when viewed against the
inexorable progress of exponential growth."
The five factors, food, population, natural resources, capital and
not only feed back to influence themselves, but also constantly
interact with eachother in very complex ways. All five variables are so
tightly interwoven in hundreds of never ending circles...the complete
interdependency of the hundreds of feedback loops upon eachother cannot be
overemphasized. By showing some of our present world behavior modes
through these interactions, they are able to predict likely behavior modes
for the future if present behavior patterns remain. The gloomy prediction
is a collapse of population and industrial growth by the year 2OOO due to
nonrenewable resource depletion. (Oh boy...)
With man on the moon and robots on Mars, won't the highly advanced
technology of the 2Oth Century be able to pull the world out of its grave
situation? With nuclear power, the Green Revolution, and birth control
and other achievements, won't the problems be drastically reduced? Not
so!, stress the authors, as they explain the danger of the reaction of
technological optimism. This, they feel, diverts the attention away from
the fundamental problem of exponential growth in a finite world, which
technology cannot extend. Man must stop fighting against the natural
limits with his technology, and instead, learn to accept and live with the
limits.
The final chapter stresses the need to immediately curb the
exponential growth of population and capital by balancing the
loops of the cycle... forcing the birth rate to equal death rate and the
investment rate equal the depreciation rate. Thus, with them stabilized,
a state of global equilibrium will be possible. It is emphasized...THE
SOONER THE BETTER...with each day of exponential growth, the world system
comes closer to the ultimate limits to that growth. Man will need to make
a tremendous effort to make this quick transfer to global equilibrium.
I loved this book. I have read it through three times and have
enjoyed it each time. It is easy to read, interesting, and has
many understandable graphs which I feel greatly enhance the book. The
book most definitely paints a very pessimistic and gloomy picture of the
future, which is what makes the book so effective. The ideas brought out
in the book depress and scare me, even though the conclusion ends on a
cheerier note, stating that global equilibrium is a very realistic
possiblity. The major theme running throughout the book is of course the
pressing and urgent need to stop the exponential growth of population and
capital, before a world-wide collapse occurs. This was presented very
forcefully and explicitly, which makes the book so valuable. I would have
liked the book to have included a chapter on the fate of the Americans, I
wonder if the impact of a possible collapse will hit everyone in the world
with equally horrible effects. This book is great though, and I wish that
everyone in the world could read it.\.
\F3\C THE LIMITS TO GROWTH
\C Reaction note, due Nov. 1, 1976
\C C.E. 17O
\C by Mary Rasmussen